Journal of University Medical & Dental College <p>Journal of University Medical &amp; Dental College, JUMDC, is the official peer reviewed Journal of University Medical &amp; Dental College, constituent college of The University of Faisalabad. JUMDC is open access journal being published quarterly.<br><br>ISSN, 2221-7827<br>ISSN, 2310-5542</p> <p>Original research articles, review articles, practical updates, case reports, letter to editor of medical and allied health sciences are being evaluated by editorial board and peer reviewers before publication in the journal.</p> en-US <p><a href="" rel="license"><img src="" alt="Creative Commons License" border="0"></a><br>This work is licensed under a&nbsp;<a href="" rel="license">Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License</a>.</p> (Prof Dr. Muhammad Akram Malik) (Aroosa Noor) Tue, 22 Nov 2022 10:46:17 +0000 OJS 60 Contents editor Copyright (c) Mental health care in Afghanistan: The need of the hour Tauseef Ahmad, Iqra Mushtaque, Saba Tariq, Sundus Tariq Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Tue, 22 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Family Medicine: A new take on an old practice Sumera Shahzad Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Tue, 22 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Correlation between transverse cerebellar diameter and gestational age in second and third trimester of singleton pregnancies <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>Trans cerebellar diameter stands out as an important fetal parameter for estimating gestational age in second and third trimester when all the other parameters start showing margin of error of 3 to 4weeks. The study was designed with intent to gather more evidence on TCD measurements validity.&nbsp; This will help us in using TCD on routine basis in advance pregnancies. Our objective is to determine the correlation between mean transverse cerebellar diameter and mean gestational age in 20 to 40 weeks of gestation.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>This research is being conducted at radiology department of Social Security Hospital Islamabad from 1-02-2022 till 01-06-2022. Non-probability convenient sampling was done and a total of sixty (n=60) healthy women with a singleton pregnancy between 18 to 40 years of age with gestational age of 20 to 40 weeks as confirmed by ultrasound were enrolled in the study. An expert radiologist used Logic P6 ultrasonography machine during the study. TCD, HC, BPD and FL was measured in each patient and correlated with gestational age. Pearson correlation coefficient was computed using SPSS-17.0<strong>.</strong></p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>Significant and strong positive correlation (r=0.98) and p&lt;0.001 was found between TCD measured by ultrasonography and gestational age at a 0.05 significance level.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION:</strong> Significant and strong positive correlation was found between TCD measured by ultrasonography and gestational age.</p> Beenish Nadeem, Anam Zahoor Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Thu, 03 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Hair manifestations in factory workers with arsenic exposure in Hayatabad industrial estate Peshawar, Pakistan <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>Arsenic is present both naturally and from manmade sources like factory effluents. Contamination by arsenic of the groundwater is a major source of health detriment in south-east Asian countries. The aim of this study was to identify levels of arsenic in drinking water sources and factory effluents and to analyse arsenic levels in hair samples from factory workers and their families, along with morphological changes in hair in industrial workers in Peshawar.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>Water and hair samples were collected by random sampling from a labor colony of 81 factory and non-factory household members living and working in the same industrial estate and analyzed for arsenic. Hair morphology was carried out in histomorphology laboratory at Khyber Medical University, Peshawar. The results obtained from both groups were compared with normal hair histomorphology. The data was analyzed by using SPSS version 20.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>The arsenic level in drinking water, colony tube wells and households was not within the permissible level of WHO (10µg/L). The arsenic level in factory effluent was 68µg/l (Pakistan Government's acceptable level is 50µg/L). The difference was statistically significant p≤0.001 between the two groups, the factory workers had a relatively higher level of arsenic, ~34ppb, in their scalp hair. Hair arsenic level also came out to be &lt;1.00µg/g. There was a wide variation in the histomorphology of the hair samples in both groups.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>Elevated levels of arsenic in factory effluent demonstrate improper decontamination. The arsenic levels were within permissible levels, long term effects cannot be ruled out.</p> Mahvish Javed, Zilli Huma, Zeeshan Kibria, Muhammad Adeel Alam Shah Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Thu, 03 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Antimicrobial Susceptibility Pattern of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in a Tertiary care Hospital <p><strong>Background &amp; Objective: </strong>Methicillin-resistant <em>Staphylococcus aureus </em>(MRSA) has become a major therapeutic issue across the world. The current study is designed to evaluate the trends in the susceptibility pattern of MRSA strains isolated from various clinical samples in a tertiary care hospital in Islamabad. The antimicrobial susceptibility pattern will not only add data but will also guide us about treatment options for MRSA infection.</p> <p><strong>Methodology: </strong>This study was done in the Microbiology laboratory of Dr. Akbar Niazi Teaching Hospital, Islamabad after approval from the institutional ethical committee from May 2021 to December 2021. It was a descriptive cross-sectional study in which 155 clinical samples which revealed growth of <em>Staphylococcus aureus</em> were included by nonprobability convenient sampling technique. The cefoxitin disk was used to detect methicillin susceptibility. The susceptibility pattern of MRSA strains was seen against various antibiotics. The data entry and analysis were done using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25.</p> <p><strong>Results: </strong>Out of 155 isolates of <em>Staphylococcus aureus</em>, 90(58.1%) isolates were MRSA. All the MRSA strains were sensitive to linezolid and vancomycin. The majority of the strains were sensitive to minocycline (71.1%), gentamycin (70%), and clindamycin (68.9%). The strains showed a relatively lower degree of sensitivity to other antimicrobials: trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole (20%), ciprofloxacin (25.6%), levofloxacin (31.1%), and erythromycin (24.4%). There were only 2 MRSA strains isolated from urine samples which were sensitive to nitrofurantoin.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>There is a very high prevalence of MRSA in our setup. The majority of isolates are also resistant to macrolides, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and fluoroquinolones. Fortunately, all the MRSA strains are sensitive to vancomycin and linezolid.</p> Aqsa Aslam, Wajiha Mahjabeen, Muhammad Zia ul Rehman, Sana Qanber Abbasi, Nazish Babar, Huzaifa Saleem Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Fri, 11 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Self-esteem, optimism and their associated factors among Optometry students at the University of Lahore <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>Self-esteem and optimism are important for students’ success. Our objectives were (<strong>a)</strong> to determine self-esteem and life-orientation (optimism) levels among Optometry students in the Department of Optometry &amp; Vision Sciences at the University of Lahore (UoL) <strong>(b)</strong> to investigate associations between sociodemographic factors, self-esteem, and optimism.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>This cross-sectional study was conducted during November 2021 to December 2021 at the Department of Optometry and Vision Sciences, UoL. A total of 168 Optometry students were recruited by convenience sampling. Self-esteem was estimated using Rosenberg Self-Esteem Questionnaire. Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R) questionnaire was used to measure optimism. Ethical approval was obtained from the Institutional Review Board of the UoL. Chi-square was used to determine associations between sociodemographic variables, self-esteem, and optimism.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>Mean self-esteem score was 18.48±3.86 (range:8-30). About 20% of students had low self-esteem. The mean life orientation score was 14.15±2.8 (range:5-24). About 43% of students had low optimism. Significant associations were found between self-esteem, reason of admission in the Optometry program with p-value=0.001, family income &nbsp;p=0.037 , choice of the Optometry program p=0.036, and reason of admission in the Optometry program 0.032.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>Low self-esteem and low optimism have been observed among a significant percentage of Optometry students at the UoL. Reason of admission in the Optometry program and family income were significantly associated factors. Students’ own decision to choose a study program may increase their self-esteem and optimism. Financial assistance for students from the low socioeconomic background may be a positive approach to boost their self-esteem and optimism. Teachers, parents, and counselors should support the students to increase their self-esteem and optimism.&nbsp;</p> Mudassar Ali Roomi, Ansa Farooq, Ahmad Bilal , Shagufta Khaliq , Hafsa Iqbal , Muhammad Imran Ashraf Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Thu, 03 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Comparative effects of parsley leaves aqueous extract and ramipril on gentamicin induced nephrotoxicity in rats <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>Rats are commonly used in experimental studies as they have a smaller body size, they are easily available, and their genetic profiles are similar to each other as compared to humans. Kidney pathologies are the result of an imbalance between reactive oxygen species and antioxidants. Parsley aqueous extract is rich in polyphenolic contents and has nephroprotective effects. The objective of this study is to observe the effects of ramipril and parsley leaves aqueous extract in gentamicin induced nephrotoxicity.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY:</strong> An Experimental study consisting of 40 healthy male albino rats were randomly distributed into two categories after taking samples for baseline values of urea and creatinine: Category 1 consisted of a control group (Group 1) having 10 rats, while category 2 comprised of 30 rats, divided into three experimental groups after being given intraperitoneal injections of gentamicin (80mg/kg) per day. Group 2 was taken as disease control, while group 3 and group 4 were parsley treated and ramipril treated for 28 days, respectively. Biochemical markers (serum urea and creatinine) were done at day 35. SPSS version 22 was applied for Statistical analysis. One-way ANOVA test was used to determine any difference in mean values. Post hoc tuckeys test was applied for multiple comparisons amongst groups. p&lt;0.05 was measured as significant.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>The treatment decreased the levels of serum urea and creatinine in nephrotoxic rats in group 3 (parsley treated group) and group 4 (ramipril treated group) in comparison to group 2. Group 3 had significantly reduced biochemical markers (p&lt;0.05).</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>Parsley leaves extract significantly reduced the serum urea and creatinine levels as compared to ramipril.</p> Eisha Akram, Akbar Waheed, Rukhsana Munawar, Sidra Mumal, Abdul Azeem Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Thu, 03 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Association of Blood Groups with Corona virus Disease (COVID-19) <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE:</strong> Coronavirus (covid-19) disease emerged acutely and suddenly, becoming a nightmare as it affected every country drastically. This disease engulfed the physical, mental as well as social lives of the individuals. The objective was to determine which blood group has a higher tendency to contract COVID-19 infection and to evaluate common presenting symptoms.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY:</strong> This cross-sectional study was performed from August to September 2020 at Aziz Fatima Medical and Dental College, Faisalabad. A structured questionnaire was formed on a Google form. It was then conveyed through sharing link by WhatsApp among the COVID positive patients. Data was compiled and analyzed by SPSS 22<strong>.</strong></p> <p><strong><em>RESULTS</em></strong><em>:</em> Our study comprised 415 subjects of age 20-50 years who got COVID-19 infection. Out of which 162(39%) comprise the male population and 253(61%) constituting of female population. Subjects of the age group of 20 to 30 years were most frequently infected with COVID-19. Our results reveal that COVID-19 was more among blood group B followed by O, AB &amp; A. The most frequent symptom from which the subjects suffered was fever 305(73.4%) followed by smell and taste alteration comprising 180(43.3%), 154(37%) subjects suffered from sore throat. GIT symptoms were reported by 50(12.0%) while only 102(13%) remained asymptomatic.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION:</strong> We conclude that COVID-19 was more prevalent among blood group B followed by O, AB, A, and the Rh-positive group. The most frequent symptom in our study was fever, followed by loss of taste and smell sensation.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> Shireen Jawed, Benash Altaf , Hania Ali, Hira Zahid, Anam Rehman Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Fri, 11 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Determining the frequency of Plummer Vinson Syndrome among patients having dysphagia presenting at district Bahawalpur <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE:</strong> Plummer Vinson syndrome (PVS) is a rare triad of dysphagia, iron deficiency, and esophageal webs. This study aims to assess the frequency of PVS in patients presenting with dysphagia.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY:</strong> A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Department of Otolaryngology from 1<sup>st</sup> April 2020 to 31<sup>st</sup> March 2021. A total of 164 patients having dysphagia for a minimum of two weeks duration were enrolled. The patient's data was recorded using a pre-designed questionnaire for PVS assessments, complete blood count, serum ferritin levels and barium swallow test results were obtained, and a radiologist was consulted for the upper esophageal web.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>The observed frequency of PVS among patients with dysphagia was 11(6.7%). Female gender turned out to be significantly associated with PVS occurrence (p=0.001), while age (p=0.748) and duration of dysphagia (p=1.00) showed no significant association with it. Among those with PVS, 72.7% of patients were &gt;40 years of age, 90.9% were females, and 81.8% had a duration of dysphagia &gt;4 weeks.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>It is concluded that PVS is not very frequent among patients with dysphagia. But since it increases the risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the pharynx and the esophagus, therefore, such patients should be followed closely for the presence of PVS and treated promptly to avoid morbidity and mortality.</p> Nasir Wakeel, Masood Akhtar, Aasma Tariq, Iqra Gull, Hamna Hafeez, Nayab Anjum Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Mon, 14 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Comparison of the use of intravenous iron sucrose with intravenous ferric Carboxymaltose for treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in pregnant patients <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>Iron deficiency results in major disabilities and death all over the world, about two billion people are suffering from anaemia at the moment. To compare intravenous iron sucrose with intravenous ferric carboxymaltose in terms of mean change in hemoglobin level and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) for treatment of iron deficiency anaemia in pregnant patients.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>Prospective comparative study was conducted at the department of Obstetrics/ Gynecology of POF Hospital Wah Cantt and HIT Hospital Taxila Cantt. The study duration was 2 years, from January 2017-December 2018. A total of 80 patients were included in the study. Patients were randomly divided into two groups; in Group-A; 40 patients were given intravenous iron sucrose, and in Group B, 40 patients were given intravenous ferric carboxymaltose. Patients were observed for hemoglobin level and mean corpuscular volume (MCV). Data analysis was done with SPSS version 24. An Independent t-test was applied, and results with p-value ≤0.05 were found significant.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>Post-treatment hemoglobin means level in the iron sucrose group was 9.90±0.4SD, and in the intravenous ferric carboxymaltose group, post-treatment hemoglobin was 10.71±0.9SD (p≤0.001). In the iron sucrose group, the post-treatment mean corpuscular volume mean level was 81.94±6.0SD and in the intravenous ferric carboxymaltose group mean post-treatment mean corpuscular volume was 88.08±7.1SD (p≤0.001)</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>Treatment with intravenous iron caboxymaltose is superior to intravenous iron sucrose with respect to hematological response, which seems to be safe, as very few severe side effects were observed.</p> Khir-Un Nisa, Rukhsana Shaheen Afzal, Faiza Safdar, Noreen Majeed, Shabana Kalsoom, Irum Mushtaq Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Mon, 14 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Prevalence of Piperacillin-Tazobactam induced Hypersensitivity Reaction in Workers of Stallion’s Pharmaceutical Factory at Lahore <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>Piperacillin is an antibiotic that belongs to the ureidopenicillin family. Piperacillin-tazobactam provides cover against gram-positive, gram-negative bacteria and some bacteria of anaerobic nature. It is an extended-spectrum antibiotic and is used along with tazobactam which is an inhibitor of beta-lactamase. The main objective of our research was to identify the hypersensitivity reactions of piperacillin-tazobactam in pharmaceuticals factory and office workers.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>A Cross-sectional study was conducted at Stallion Pharmaceuticals (Pvt) Ltd located at Sundar Industrial Estate Lahore, Pakistan, from March to April 2018, after approval from the institutional research committee. All the workers, including factory workers and office workers at Stallion Pharmaceuticals (Pvt) Ltd were included in this study. Data was collected from each respondent by immediate-type skin testing. Data analysis was done by SPSS version 25, the demographic data was evaluated by descriptive statistics, Fisher Exact test was used for comparison and p≤0.05 was taken as significant.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>The results of the study presented that hypersensitivity reaction was present in (7.5%) of males and (3.8%) of females. It was also observed that (8.8%) of factory workers had hypersensitivity reactions when they are gone through skin tests, and only (2.5%) of office workers were skin test positive. From the above results (11.2%) of all the respondents developed hypersensitivity reactions and (88.8%) showed no reaction when they were gone through skin tests, which contain 0.1 ml of piperacillin and tazobactam. Fisher exact test was applied, and results showed no significant difference between hypersensitivity reactions among factory and office workers as the p-value was 01.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>Hypersensitivity reaction to piperacillin-tazobactam was minimal in the factory &amp; office workers, and this was not significant.</p> Anwar Ali Sulehri, Hafiz Muhammad Hammad Yaqub, Humayun Suqrat Hassan Imam, Uzma Sagheer, Muhammad Abubakar Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Fri, 11 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Perception of Dentists regarding Brain Drain in Punjab, Pakistan: A Cross-sectional Survey <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>Brain drain is a term coined for the migration of highly skilled professionals from the country of their origin to more developed countries. As the trend of moving abroad is on a rise, ever since, it is causing a shortage of dental professionals in our country. The objective of our study is to determine the factors that would compel the dentists of Punjab, Pakistan, to move abroad and how to prevent this migration.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>It was a cross-sectional survey. Data was collected through a self-constructed and validated questionnaire. The study was done in dental colleges in Punjab, and the duration of the study was one year. The questionnaire was distributed both by hand and via digital sources.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>&nbsp;There were 155 (33.4%) participants, who were planning to go abroad for higher education, and 274 (59%) had not planned to go out of the country for further studies. Among the study participants, 50 (32.3%) participants were planning to move to the United Kingdom, whereas 23 (14.8%) participants were planning to go to Australia, 44 (28.3%) wanted to move to the US, 10 (6.4%) to Canada and the rest (18%) had plans to move to any other country.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>The majority of dental graduates wish to go abroad for their post-graduation. The dentists of Punjab were willing to serve their country, provided the economic and political situations improved.</p> Arooj Ul Hassan, Naiha Muzamil, Mehrin Wajahat , Zunaira Iqbal, Obaid Bajwa Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Tue, 22 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Correlation of clinical manifestation of lumbar disc prolapse with magnetic resonance imaging findings among adult patients <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>The most common cause of low back pain is disc prolapse. Disc prolapse occurs in both gender, but females are more prone to disc degenerative changes. The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between clinical findings and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of lumbar disc prolapse patients.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>This study recruited 32 participants of either gender, between the ages of 19 to 65, from the Radiology department of Shalamar Hospital. This study was carried out in six months with follow-up. Only diagnosed patients with lumbar disc prolapse on MRI were recruited. Numeric pain rating scale (NPRS) was used to identify the intensity of pain. History and neurological examinations were done in all diagnosed patients. All the findings of MRI were correlated with the clinical findings at different levels of lumbar vertebrae using Pearson correlation.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>There was a statistically significant positive correlation of MRI findings with clinical findings in the presence of nerve root compression at the L1-L2 level of lumbar vertebrae. All abnormal findings on MRI did not correlate with clinical findings. There was a significant positive (p-value &gt;0.05) correlation between clinical features (sensations, power and reflexes) and MRI findings at L1, L2, right L3 myotomes and L2 dermatome only.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION: </strong>There was a no correlation between MRI findings and clinical findings of patients with lumbar disc prolapse except L2 and L3.</p> Hamna Nasir, Muhammad Usman Sarwar, Sumair Nasim Qureshi, Manqoosh-ur-Rehman, Amjad Maqsood, Saba Saif Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Wed, 23 Nov 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Role of attendance in academic performance of male and female medical students in pre clinical years: A descriptive study <p><strong>BACKGROUND &amp; OBJECTIVE: </strong>In-person attendance at medical school is a growing concern since the inception of readily available online resources. In Pakistan, a student who fails to keep up with what has been taught in class often finds academic assessments in jeopardy. The present study aimed to assess the role of attendance in academic performance among preclinical male and female students in the subject of Physiology.</p> <p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>Overall attendance in lectures, tutorials, and practical classes was recorded from first and second-year MBBS students’ records during the academic session of 2016-17. Scores in all written, viva voce and formative assessments were used to represent the academic performance. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 23.0. Shapiro-Wilk’s statistics were used to determine distributions. The median interquartile range (IQR) was used for non-normally distributed variables. A <em>p</em>-value of ≤ 0.05 was considered statistically significant.</p> <p><strong>RESULTS: </strong>A total of 287 preclinical students were included in the study. Out of them, 110 (38.3%) were male, and 177 (61.7%) were females. Girls had higher overall attendance, 91% (87.2-95) as compared to the boys, 88.9% (85.6-93.2) of both MBBS years (p = 0.015). Girls also had a significantly higher percentage of scores in all formative assessments in tutorials, 65.7% (59.2-73.9) as compared to the boys, 59.6% (53.1-66.4) (p &lt; 0.001). A positive correlation of all academic performance parameters was observed with the overall attendance (p &lt; 0.001). The same correlations were also seen among the groups based on gender as well as the MBBS year.</p> <p><strong>CONCLUSION:&nbsp; </strong>Attendance at medical school, especially in the subject of Physiology, is related to better academic performance. Female students are more regular and have the habit of attending classes which reflects on their better performance in formative assessments. A satisfactory overall attendance observed in our study might be due to the mandatory attendance policy of our medical school.&nbsp;</p> Mohsin Ali Cheema, Amra Rehman, Saba Khalid, Syed Muhammad Hammad Ali, Rida Ajmal Khan Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Thu, 27 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000 Trend and future of infant mortality in Pakistan <p>In South Asia, Pakistan is contributing to the highest childhood mortality, including infant mortality. Child mortality has been declined globally, but Pakistan is still struggling and far behind the targets of Sustainable Development Goals. There are several reasons behind high childhood mortality, including socioeconomic determinants and a lack of effective implementation of health-related policies, particularly in primary health care settings. In the present study, we use the stochastic univariate models to uncover the trend of infant mortality by using more than half of the century data from 1960-2017.<br>The secondary data on infant mortality rate from 1960 to 2017 was extracted from World Bank Dataset. Descriptive and time series analysis were applied by using the programming language R. <br>The median infant mortality rate was 109 per 1,000 live births, whereas a higher mortality rate (189.8/1000) was reported in 1960. A gradual decline in infant mortality rates is experienced every year. The mortality rate went down below 100/1,000 live births from 1993 and remained 61.2/1,000 in 2017. ARIMA (1, 2, 2) is an adequate forecasting model selected by using the Auto ARIMA function with a root mean square error is 0.1006. Five years ahead forecast is obtained and yielded that infant mortality rate is expected to remain in 2018 [59.54, C.I (59.34 - 59.73)], 2019 [57.93, C.I (57.47 - 58.40)], 2020 [56.39, C.I (55.48 - 57.30)], 2021 [54.90, C.I (53.35 - 56.45)] and 2022 [53.47, C.I (51.05 - 55.88)]. The decreasing trend is expected in the infant mortality rate in Pakistan.</p> Zartashia Shabbir, Anila Riaz , Fiaz Ahmad, Muhammad Imran shakoor Copyright (c) 2022 Journal of University Medical & Dental College Thu, 27 Oct 2022 00:00:00 +0000